It Crowd Off and Back on Again
the
WISDOM and/or MADNESS
of
CROWDS
playing fourth dimension: 30 min • by nicky instance, april 2018
Sir Isaac Newton was pretty certain he was a
smart cookie. I hateful, after inventing calculus and
a theory of gravity, he should be clever plenty to do
some fiscal investing, correct? Anyway, long story short, he
lost $4,600,000 (in today'south dollars) in the nationwide
speculation frenzy known every bit the South Sea Chimera of 1720.
As Mr. Newton later said: "I can calculate the motion of
heavenly bodies, but not the madness of people."
fourth dimension markets, institutions, or entire
democracies went haywire — the madness of
crowds. And yet, simply when you lose hope in humanity,
you see citizens coordinating to rescue each other in
hurricanes, communities creating solutions to problems,
people fighting for a ameliorate world — the wisdom of crowds! But why exercise some crowds turn to madness, or wisdom? No theory
can explicate everything, but I recollect a new field of study,
network science, can guide u.s.a.! And its cadre idea is this: to
understand crowds, nosotros should await not at the individual
people, simply at...
optional extra bonus notes! ↑
↓ links and references
For case, a 1991 study showed that "virtually all [college] students reported that their friends drank more than they did." But that seems impossible! How can that exist? Well, yous're about to invent the reply yourself, by drawing a network. Information technology's time to...
Fool everyone into thinking the bulk of their friends (50% threshold) are binge-drinkers
Start the simulation! (p.s: you tin can't draw while the sim's running)
Draw a network & run the simulation, so that everyone gets infected with the "contamination".
(new rule: you can't cut the thick connections)
Withal: this simulation is incorrect. Nearly ideas don't spread like viruses. For many behavior and behaviors, you need to be "exposed" to the contagion more just once in society to be "infected". So, network scientists take come up with a new, ameliorate mode to describe how ideas/behaviors spread, and they call it...
Now, let's simulate what happens if people outset drinking when 50%+ of their friends do! Before you commencement the sim, enquire yourself what you call up should happen.
Now, run the sim, and see what actually happens!
← Get anybody "infected" with the skilful vibes!
Try to "infect" everyone with circuitous wisdom!
Besides many connections, and you become groupthink.
Build a span, to "infect" everyone with circuitous wisdom:
Draw connections within groups (bonding) and between groups (bridging) to spread wisdom to the whole crowd:
No matter how it's phrased, people beyond times and cultures often go far at the aforementioned piece of wisdom: a healthy society needs a sweet spot of bonds inside groups and bridges between groups. That is:
(because ideas tin't spread)
(because yous'll get groupthink)
[Space]: Drag [Backspace]: Delete
IN Determination: it'due south all about...
Contagions & Connections
Contagions: Similar how neurons pass signals in a brain, people pass behavior & behaviors in a gild. Not only do we influence our friends, we also influence our friends' friends, and even our friends' friends' friends!
("be the change you wanna see in the globe" etc etc) Only, like neurons, it'southward not just signals that thing, it's also...
Connections: Too few connections and complex ideas can't spread. Too many connections and complex ideas get crushed by groupthink. The pull a fast one on is to build a small globe network, the optimal mix of bonding and bridging: e pluribus unum.
(wanna make your ain simulations? check out Sandbox Mode, by clicking the (★) button below!)
So, what near our question from the very beginning? Why do some crowds plow to...
network science, we've covered a lot here
today. Long story brusk, the madness of crowds
is not necessarily due to the individual people, just due
to how nosotros're trapped in a network'southward sticky web. That does NOT mean abandoning personal responsibility, for
we're as well the weavers of that web. So, improve your contagions:
be skeptical of ideas that flatter you, spend fourth dimension understanding
complex ideas. And, improve your connections: bond with like
folk, just also build bridges beyond cultural/political divides. We tin can weave a wise web. Sure, it's harder than doodling
lines on a screen...
~ Neil Gaiman & Terry Pratchett
A quick response to James Surowiecki'south The Wisdom of Crowds
First off, I'g not dissing this book. Information technology's a skillful volume, and Surowiecki was trying to tackle the same question I am: "why do some crowds turn to madness, or wisdom?"
Surowiecki's answer: crowds make practiced decisions when everybody is as independent as possible. He gives the story of a county off-white, where the townsfolk were invited to guess the weight of an ox. Surprisingly, the average of all their guesses was better than any i guess. But, hither's the rub: the people take to guess independently of each other. Otherwise, they'd be influenced past earlier incorrect guesses, and the average reply would be highly skewed.
Just... I don't think "make everyone as independent as possible" is the full answer. Even geniuses, who nosotros mischaracterize as the most independent thinkers, are deeply influenced by others. As Sir Isaac Newton said, "If I have seen farther, information technology is by standing on the shoulders of Giants."
So, which idea is correct? Does wisdom come from thinking for yourself, or thinking with others? The respond is: "yes".
So that'southward what I'll attempt to explicate in this explorable explanation: how to get that sweet spot between independence and interdependence — that is, how to go a wise crowd.
What other kinds of connections are there?
For the sake of simplicity, my simulations pretend that people can but be connected through friendships, and that all friendships are equal. But network scientists practice consider other ways we tin be connected, such equally:
Directional connections. Alice is the boss of Bob, but Bob is not the boss of Alice. Carol is the parent of Dave, but Dave is not the parent of Carol. "Boss" & "parent" are directional relationships: the relationship just goes one way. In dissimilarity, "friends" is a bidirectional human relationship: the relationship goes both ways. (well, hopefully)
Weighted connections. Elinor and Frankie are mere acquaintances. George and Harry are Best Friends Forever. Even though there'south a "friendship" connection in both cases, the 2d i is stronger. We say that these 2 connections have different "weights".
Just remember: all these simulations are wrong. The aforementioned fashion any map is "incorrect". Yous see the map on the left? Buildings aren't gray featureless blocks! Words don't float higher up the city! Nonetheless, maps are useful not despite being simplified, but considering they're simplified. Same goes for simulations, or whatever scientific theory. Of course they're "incorrect" — that's what makes them useful.
What other kinds of contagions are at that place?
There are then, so many ways that network scientists tin simulate "contagions"! I picked the simplest one, for educational purposes. But here's other ways you lot could practice information technology:
Contagions with Randomness. Existence "exposed" to a contagion doesn't guarantee you'll be infected, it but makes information technology more likely.
People accept different contamination thresholds. My simulations pretend that everyone has the same threshold for binge-drinking (fifty%) or volunteering (25%) or misinformation (0%). Of form, that'due south not true in real life, and yous could make your sim reflect that.
An ecology of contagions. What if there were multiple contagions, with dissimilar thresholds? For example, a simple "madness" contagion and a circuitous "wisdom" contagion. If someone's infected with madness, can they even so be infected with wisdom? Or vice versa? Can someone exist infected with both?
Contagions that mutate and evolve. Ideas don't pass perfectly from one person to another the fashion a virus does. Like a game of Telephone, the bulletin gets mutated with each re-telling — and sometimes the mutant will be more infectious than the original! And then, over time, ideas "evolve" to exist more catchy, copy-able, contagious.
I wanna learn more! What else can I read and/or play?
This explorable explanation was merely a springboard for your marvel, so you tin can dive deeper into a vast pool of knowledge! Here's more than stuff on networks or social systems:
Book: Continued by Nicholas Christakis and James Fowler (2009). An accessible bout of how our networks affect our lives, for skillful or sick. Hither's an excerpt: Preface & Affiliate 1
Interactive: The Evolution of Trust by Nicky Example (me) (2017). A game nearly the game theory of how cooperation is congenital... or destroyed.
Interactive: Parable of the Polygons by Half dozen Hart and Nicky Case (also me) (2014). A story nearly how harmless choices can create a harmful world.
Or, if you just want to see a whole gallery of interactive edu-things, hither'southward Explorable Explanations, a hub for learning through play!
"most all [higher] students reported that their friends drank more than they did."
"The Majority Illusion"
"potent statistical evidence that smoking, health, happiness, voting patterns, and cooperation levels are all contagious"
From Nicholas Christakis and James Fowler'south wonderfully-written, layperson-accessible volume, Continued (2009).
"some evidence that suicides are [contagious], likewise"
"some evidence that mass shootings are [contagious], too"
"Contamination in Mass Killings and School Shootings" by Towers et al (2015).
Also see: the Don't Name Them campaign, which urges that news outlets DO NOT air mass murderers' names, manifestos, and social media feeds. This spreads the contagion. Instead, news outlets should focus on the victims, first responders, civilian heroes, and the grieving, healing community.
"The world'south financial institutions fell for such a pour in 2008."
"Lemmings of Wall Street" by Cass Sunstein, is a quick, not-technical read. Published in Oct 2008, correct in the wake of the crash.
"the complex contagion theory."
"the possum has thirteen nipples"
bundled in a ring of 12 nipples, plus i in the eye
"groupthink"
This Orwell-inspired phrase was coined by Irving L. Janis in 1971. In his original commodity, Janis investigates cases of groupthink, lists its causes, and — thankfully — some possible remedies.
"bridging social upper-case letter has a sugariness spot"
"The Strength of Weak Ties" by Granovetter (1973) showed that connections across groups helps spread simple contagions (like information), but "Complex Contagions and the Weakness of Long Ties" by Centola & Macy (2007) showed that connections beyond groups may not help circuitous contagions, and it fact, tin hurt their spread!
"the small world network"
The idea of the "small world" was popularized by Travers & Milgram's 1969 experiment, which showed that, on boilerplate, whatsoever two random people in the United States were just six friendships apart — "half-dozen degrees of separation"!
The small-world network got more than mathematical meat on its basic with "Collective dynamics of pocket-sized-earth networks" past Watts & Strogatz (1998), which proposed an algorithm for creating networks with both low boilerplate path length (low degree of separation) and high clustering (friends accept lots of mutual friends) — that is, a network that hits the sweet spot!
You tin besides play with the visual, interactive adaptation of that paper past Bret Victor (2011).
"[small earth networks] draw how our neurons are continued"
"[small world networks] give rise to collective creativity"
"Collaboration and Creativity: The Pocket-sized World Problem" past Uzzi & Spiro (2005). This paper analyzed the social network of the Broadway scene over time, and discovered that, yup, the network'south most creative when it'due south a "small world" network!
"[pocket-size world networks] helped John F. Kennedy (barely) avoid nuclear state of war!"
Besides the NASA Challenger explosion, the virtually notorious example of groupthink was the Bay of Pigs fiasco. In 1961, US President John F. Kennedy and his squad of advisors idea — for some reason — it would be a good idea to secretly invade Cuba and overthrow Fidel Castro. They failed. Really, worse than failed: it led to the Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962, the closest the world had ever been to full-scale nuclear war.
Yup, JFK really screwed up on that one.
But, having learnt some hard lessons from the Bay of Pigs fiasco, JFK re-organized his squad to avert groupthink. Amidst many things, he: 1) actively encouraged people to voice criticism, thus lowering the "contamination threshold" for alternate ideas. And ii) he broke his squad upward into sub-groups earlier reconvening, which gave their group a "small globe network"-like blueprint! Together, this arrangement allowed for a healthy diversity of opinion, but without being too fractured — a wisdom of crowds.
And then, with the same individuals who decided the Bay of Pigs, but re-arranged collectively to decide on the Cuban Missile Crisis... JFK'south team was able to reach a peaceful agreement with Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev. The Soviets would remove their missiles from Cuba, and in return, the Us would promise not to invade Cuba again. (and also agreed, in hole-and-corner, to remove the US missiles from Turkey)
And that's the story of how all of humanity about died. Merely a small-scale world network saved the solar day! Sort of.
You can read more about this on Harvard Business Review, or from the original article on groupthink.
"we influence [...] our friends' friends' friends!"
Again, from Nicholas Christakis and James Fowler'due south wonderful volume, Connected (2009).
"exist skeptical of ideas that flatter you"
yes, including the ideas in this explorable caption.
★ Sandbox Mode ★
The keyboard shortcuts (ane, 2, space, backspace) work in all the puzzles, not just Sandbox Mode! Seriously, y'all can go dorsum to a different chapter, and edit the simulation right there. In fact, that'due south how I created all these puzzles. Take fun!
It Crowd Off and Back on Again
Source: https://ncase.me/crowds/